Regaining Focus

Last time out I covered the beginning of the 2017/18 season at the Wildparkstadion, and the thinking I was doing around the question of a one or two striker system.

So  where did we go from there?


Following on from the Bayern draw, and the announcement of the Champions League group...

... we had a couple of ‘surprise’ results; surprising in that we probably would’ve expected a win to come at home to Hoffenheim rather than away at Stuttgart, but 3 points from those two games was a decent return either way. It’s likely that the ‘local’ derby nature of the Stuttgart game may have contributed to my boys stepping up their game.

INTO EUROPE

Then it was time to step onto the European stage for the first time in my tenure; I’ve not been able to confirm whether the club have every played continental football in real life but I’m leaning towards not.

The fixture list could’ve been worse, Fenerbahçe being the weakest of the other teams in the group, but we were still on the road. Facing their 4-1DM-2-2-1 ‘V’ formation I was happy to go with our deeper Mexico-inspired shape to which I’d made only a very minor tweak – the central midfield pairing moving from CM-A/DLP-S to CM-A/AP-S.

We played much of the game in our own half, but crucially nicked the lead when Kopplin (CWB-A on the right) fed Marton, who slipped his marker and netted from 18 yards. It was a hard fought game from then on, with bookings aplenty; our fifth, just after the break, was Norwood’s second and we had to reshape to compensate – the second striker was withdrawn, and we went 5-3-1 with our wingbacks pushed forward.

On the positive side Fenerbahçe were shooting from range, as they struggled to break down our compact back three, and we looked fairly safe. Furthermore they gifted us a golden opportunity when Kopplin made a run into their box and was scythed down – cue #Scenes as Mateusz Wieteska stepped up to take the spot-kick, and notched his first Karlsruhe goal.

With PSG holding AC Milan in the other tie, we were top of the group and I savoured it while I could.

BACK TO REALITY

Meanwhile we dropped back into league and cup action – taking a single point from our next two league games, whilst suffering a 0-2 defeat at Hoffenheim to put another early end to any DFB-Pokal run. In five seasons at Karlsruhe our cup exits have come in the first or second round four times, our run to the 2016/17 quarter final being our only meaningful campaign.

Throughout those three fixtures I was still flitting between tactics, still generally playing 45 minutes each of two different shapes as I continue to try and settle on one or two up front.

It’s important for me to keep reminding myself of our real stature of course, and that our mixed results aren’t necessarily all down to my tinkering. Last season, whilst we were pretty consistent throughout, still has to be looked at as something of an anomaly when you consider our stature and assets. A media prediction of 11th from 18 for the current campaign is not an unrealistic one, and the Board’s targets are only for a top half finish – although I’m still aiming to contest the European slots (so top 6 or 7).

How far we are behind some of our mid-table contemporaries was perfectly highlighted by the defeat away to Schalke – who leapfrogged us into 6th in the process. Fielding the likes of Marc-André ter Stegen, an impressive Anthony Knockaert, and Facundo Ferreya (8 goals in 10 games) their ability to attract and pay players of a higher quality is obvious.

Probably the single biggest factor here, despite our success, is easily illustrated...

...even if we were selling out every game, and we’re far from it, with a capacity of 29,699 we’re lagging significantly behind when it comes to a major source of income.

This isn’t about making excuses, it’s a simple reality that any major leaps forward from a mid-table club are going to be hard work and a long time coming. So far I’ve resisted any temptation to respond to offers of interviews elsewhere, but this season I may have to start considering whether or not the Karlsruhe project is a viable longer-term option. The club’s ambition will be a big factor.

All that being said, we’re still only 3 points off top spot, but it’s early doors and I’d expect that gap to grow. In the meantime, there’s the small question of a visiting AC Milan side to deal with.

THE ITALIAN JOB

Having looked at Milan’s squad I was happy that a good number of them are into their 30s, and although I don’t have the Italian League running, from their friendly matches and their first group game it seems that they play plenty of them. Making a rather broad assumption that they’ll be particularly ‘Italian’, and favour slow build ups and skill over speed, I set us up in a counter-attacking asymmetric formation.

With Milan likely to be operating in largely rigid banks of four, fielding players in the DM and AM strata offer us the opportunity to disrupt their plans. Add in Micanski's role as a Deep-Lying Forward and that situation is further exacerbated; either Milan allow us the space to operate freely, or they break ranks to close down our men. A perfect example is visible for our first attack .

Here you can see our shape in action (with those players sitting in 'offset' positions shown by the dotted lines). Milan are holding a fairly flat back four, and their midfield is doing similar - albeit that it's currently regaining shape after their MR stepped up to try and close down Wieteska a moment ago. Note that Micanski has dropped into the gap between their two lines, whilst Van Enoo has pushed up on our right to keep Milan's fullback honest.

As Micanski receives the ball his marker dedcides to try and close down, whilst Marton's backs off to cover the run. A huge gap has opened up in the heart of the Italian defence, and it's a simple job for Micanski to lay the ball into it and for Marton to run onto the pass and sidefoot it home.

A perfect example of why I like to play with a Deep-Lying Forward, either to make space for a strike partner, or to act as the supply line for a pair of attacking Inside Forwards.

The press, based presumably on their reputation alone, predict an easy win for the Italians, but adding to the opener we go 2-0 up before the break with Williams getting two chances to finish. Milan don’t get a look in until late in the second half. Add another, just after the restart, and it all makes me wish that we would face up against a flat 4-4-2 more often!

I have to assume that the fact that I’m not running the Italian league is a factor in this result. Presumably, in such a situation, the way FM works will artificially limit the number of big name signings going to an inactive league because the Milan squad looks positively threadbare for someone of their stature.

One further point of interest, note the attendance. What do we have to do to draw a crowd?! It seems pretty obvious from this match that our home attendance issues are bigger than might initially be indicated in the league – we must be drawing significant numbers of away fans when playing other German sides.

From there on in, up to the winter break, things were patchy but generally positive. In Europe PSG did us over twice, but a late late comeback at home saw us secure qualification from the Champions League group with a game to spare – fortunately, as it turned out, as Milan proved less easier to overcome on their own turf.

In the Bundesliga meanwhile, a seven game unbeaten run (W5 D2) saw us actually top the table briefly, although we should’ve come unstuck sooner – Hertha Berlin gifting us a point with two own goals at the start of a brief rough patch. We’re going into the break on a high though, thanks to a 4-0 demolition of Borussia Mönchengladbach.

The down side of the Gladbach result is an injury to Marvin Ducksch, who has started to show some fairly promising form. A torn hamstring will keep him out until April at the earliest, which once again leaves me pondering our tactical approach.

FOCUS FOCUS FOCUS 

It’s not difficult to see, if you’ve been following fairly closely, that I have a habit of flitting around all over with tactical ideas. Whilst the 4-3-2-1 that I arrived at last season has remained fairly unaltered, I still keep jumping around to sometimes radically different plans; once tactical familiarity is established this isn’t a massive issue in and of itself, but I am conscious that it leads to a lack of consistency in team selection as players rotate in and out too quickly, or get deployed in different roles from match to match.

With that in mind I’ve resolved to dial back a little on the experimentation, and to try and build some consistency. What I’m thinking is that I take our 4-3-2-1 and effectively ‘fix’ around eight of the positions. I then create a couple of alternative tactics that entail slight tweaks to the other three. As ever this initial idea is a ‘first draft’ that will require development of the remainder of the season, but I’m thinking something along these lines...

The idea is to build around the core ‘spine’ of the keeper, two central defenders, two central midfielder players, and a striker – plus the wide defenders. Whilst they’ll remain largely fixed, there may be some slight shifting of the fullbacks/wingbacks as shown in the second option (close to what we’ve been using at times this season).

The other positions will be more flexible, so option two sees the wide man on the right sacrificed for a second striker – only likely to be played if an opponent doesn’t have the dual threat of a fullback and winger pressing down our flank, although I can apply player instructions to have our wide(r) forward man-mark a fullback if I juggle Roles again.

The third option is really just a more defensively minded version of the core tactic, but it’s a shape I’ve played before with results that I wasn’t overly keen on. Again it’s early days though, so I expect to tweak at least the roles here (if not positions) over time.

I want to use the variation of roles, rather than radical shape changes, to help me to better understand how they operate. For instance you’ll see that the AMR in option one is showing as a winger at present, although generally I’ve been employing two Inside Forwards in this shape. As our squad develops and matures I want to have a better handle on that tactical flexibility, the sort that can be ascertained just by dropping a different body into the same spot on the pitch.

If anyone has any instant observations then please shout up, but I’m going to be spending some serious time (re)reading the excellent ‘Pairs and Combinations’ piece on the SI forums to try and bring this all together over the remainder of the season. We’re in a solid league position right now (third) and it feels like that should offer us enough of a buffer that I can experiment somewhat.

THE THREE AMIGOS

An obvious impact of my tactic set is that we’re again looking more at a lone striker situation, which has been an ongoing issue in the development of Jimmy Marton. Things have gone better for him this season, with thirteen starts made, but even so I’m not seeing any real development in his attributes – this despite good training facilities, a full set of 4 or 4.5 star coaches, and a perceived PA of 4 stars (1.5 CA). I’ve had a quiet word with him and told him to buck his ideas up, which he took positively, but I’m beginning to wonder if there’s an issue with a lack of Ambition and/or Professionalism.

Following the Ducksch injury, and the plan to focus back on our lone striker formation, I’ve finally arrived at a decision to retrain Jimmy as an Inside Forward – and to play him here as much as possible.

Here he is with the ‘key attributes’ for an Inside Forward highlighted (and his original attributes shown underneath for comparison)...

Aside from Crossing, which is the least important one for my preferred style of play, he’s not terrible in any of the technical traits and if he can start to put some effort in I’m confident that he could fulfil the role as I like to see it played. The question I keep coming back to is whether he will ever see any development at all. If he doesn’t, then I certainly don’t expect to be offering any further extension to his contract in 18 months time.

Elsewhere let’s quickly catch up with our other development players.

I know that there were those who thought that my faith in Bauer was perhaps a little optimistic, but he’s come on brilliantly over the seasons and as far as I’m concerned he’s been a great investment of time and effort. For a £220k outlay he’s a solid player, and despite the coaches’ assessment of him as a “leading player for most 2.Bundesliga sides, who is unlikely to develop further” I’m more than happy to have him signed on for another couple of seasons after this one. It may be that he’ll slide from first choice, as Wieteska establishes himself, but ‘Jack’ is a great backup option if nothing else.

Hasek has become a fixture in the starting lineup, mostly as a benefit of Lucas Bijker suffering a 4-month layoff early in the season. He has a way to go still, but the physical side is coming along well, and he’s also seen some good progress in the more attacking side of his game.

The drop in Determination, highlighted previously, is something I’m trying to rectify but otherwise I have no serious concerns.

The progress made by Bauer and Hasek only go further to reinforce my belief that something’s not quite right with Jimmy Marton. He’s got four or five months to convince me otherwise.




So that’s where we are for now. I’ll be playing through some off-season games during the winter break, to try and bed in our tactic set and make any early tweaks, then it’ll be a case of getting through the second half of the season without that experimentation doing too much damage – fingers crossed.

The other thing I need to do in that time is to get a firm feel for my ideal starting eleven. Strangely, whilst it seemed pretty set last season, this time around there’s been a lot of chopping and changing – albeit partly for reasons outlined above. We’re soon going to have youth prospects knocking on the door for their chance, and there’s always the possibility of making some bigger signings*, so it feels like I need to get to the end of this campaign with maybe five or six of the current senior squad (of 25) earmarked for an exit.

*Our one move during the winter window might just be for a striker. Micanski is continuing to defy the pundits and find the net – although he hasn’t been as prolific as previously. At 32 it’s unlikely that he’s got another season in him at this level, although he’s on our books for a couple more years. With Ducksch out, and Marton retraining, I’m feeling like a proper top-flight striker could make a big difference for us. Watch this space.

Until next time, thanks for reading and I hope that folks are still finding this interesting. I'd be particularly keen to hear what people think of the balance between the 'narrative' and my attempts at tactical information - personally I feel like the latter is probably lacking a bit. That's likely to be down to the fact that I'm enjoying the save, and doing a lengthy analysis takes up a lot of playing time.

Feel free to drop me a comment below, or catch me on Twitter at @flipsix3_FM