A Quick Recap. Focus Regained.

So I’ve started and scrapped this update about hUa dozen times, trying to retrospectively analyse the back end of the 2017/18 season; the simple fact of the matter is that I played through it, not taking too many notes and just enjoying the ride, so with that in mind what I’ll aim to do here is:

1. A quick recap what happened during the second part of the season.*
2. Have a brief look at the squad and plans for next season.*
3. Look at tactical plans for the coming campaign.
4. Look in a bit of detail at my transfer strategy for the coming season.

Once that’s all done, and we get off and running, I’ll be making an effort to have a closer look at our tactics in action again. So, without further ado...

*(If anyone feels that they’d like more detail on anything then just let me know, and I’ll see what I can dig up for you).

2017/18 POST-CHRISTMAS RECAP

I suggested, at the end of the last update, that you “watch this space” for potential developments on the striker front. That’s because I was trying to work on a couple of potential loan deals, Andy Carroll being one of them – just to give you an idea of the ‘quality’ I was going for. We were really not in a position to be looking at a permanent signing, although it may well be on the cards in the summer, but with Ducksch out until early spring and Marton continuing his mediocre career, I needed backup for Micanski at the spearhead of our formation.

Several negotiations later, with a number of big name veterans and younger prospects turning us down, a deadline day swoop saw Alessandro Matri arrive from AC Milan. Overall he wasn’t of the level of quality that I’d pay serious money for, but his Mental attributes were good enough to convince me that he’d offer us adequate coverage for the second half of the campaign.

It was only whilst going through this process that I really appreciated just how good Micanski, is for such a low-rated player. Whilst he’s not in the elite level, and his complete package of attributes are far from rounded out, he has a surprising number of strong ratings in the right areas. I guess his return of 83 goals and 41 assists, in 161 games (by the end of this season) should be a decent indicator of that.  
The move came the day after a tough defeat at home to Bayern, during which we created a good number of chances, but thanks to a 4-0 demolition of Nürnberg in the previous match we were still holding a fairly strong third place as we returned to Champions League action.

BRIGHT LIGHTS, BIG CITY

Progression from the group stages of the Champions League was already a bonus for us, so I was never expecting much from the knockout tie with Man City. We promptly hit the post in the third minute, and would go on to hit it twice more as we delivered a creditable 1-2 defeat to the English giants. At times it was like the start of our first Bundesliga season, with some players looking like they’d forgotten how to run – let alone kick a ball – but I stand by my belief that this is how the FM14 match engine represents a gulf in class.

Despite the sometimes comedic action on the screen, we actually carved out a decent number of chances and sent the home fans wild with a Micanski goal early in the second half; cancelling out Aguero’s gifted opener. The result was always likely to go City’s way though, and a second away goal effectively ended our already slim chances of progressing further.

Attendance for the home tie? 15,157. Exactly the same number for each of our home CL ties. I must track those 15,157 people down and thank them all personally – but also ask them if they have a friend they can bring with them next time.

We were also dealing with a seemingly continuous merry-go-round of injuries by this point, after almost every week we’d lose a first team player for 2 or 3 weeks, but somehow we continued to put out a decent side and grind out results (see below).

By the time we travelled to Manchester for the return fixture we’d amassed 7 points from three league games, and eight goals in the process. The return leg was more one sided, but again we did ourselves proud with a late goal from Marton for the travelling contingent to cheer.

We were playing every game with a lone striker by this point, either our established 4-3-2-1 or the 4-1-2-2-1 with advanced wingbacks, and it felt more stable on the pitch. On that basis the ‘lone gunman’ approach, to pinch a phrase from @StatisticalApproach, is definitely the plan I’ll be staying with for our next season.

Following the Champions League exit we took a couple of games to find our momentum again, but back-to-back away wins put us firmly in third place with four to play. Even then I was expecting a slip, much as I’d expected one last season, and a finish anywhere in the top seven would’ve been fine. The slip came, if ‘just’ 5 points from our last four games can be considered a slip, but with Wolfsburg drawing two of theirs we again achieved an improbably high league finish – just Bayern and Dortmund maintaining the Old Firm-like dominance.

Having proved that last season wasn’t entirely a fluke I was named as the Bundesliga Manager of the Year, and Players Manager of the Year. Cue a new Steam achievement of Legend (5 Manager of the Year Awards across all saves).

SQUAD REVIEW

For my money Jon Williams was our key player of the season, although as we settled into a more consistent tactical plan, towards the back end, Oliver Norwood also stamped his authority on matters.

Almost always operating in the ‘Central Winger’ slot, Williams notched eleven goals across all competitions (10 league, one in Europe), with close to 2 successful dribbles per match and a decent shots-on-target ratio. Whatever our tactical plans I’ll always be looking for a way to accommodate him in a more dynamic role, despite the coaching staff being keen to drop him into the Deep Lying Playmaker slot if I ever look at their auto-pick selections.

Norwood is, for my money, more suited to the playmaker role as he lacks the ability to be mobile on the ball (0.92 dribbles per 90 mins average last season, 0.77 in the league). He does have the capability to play a more aggressive midfield role if required though – more on that later.

Other highlights or surprise packages were:

• Dennis Dahl’s progress between the sticks to the point where, at 19-years-old, he’s become my first choice. Following the end of the season, he went on to play as the starting Keeper for the Danish national side at the World Cup, only being replaced for the 3rd Place Playoff following a penalty shootout defeat to Colombia in the semi-finals. 
• Patrick ‘Jack’ Bauer’s continued consistency in the heart of defence, earning him the Fans Player of the Season award. 
• A series of impressive cameos from the Czech pairing of Mares and Bednar, which isn’t fully reflected in their average ratings. I expect to see more of them next season, although I have some concerns around their compatriot Martin Hasek* - despite him being the strongest performer of the trio.
• Micanski. Of course. 

*How Do You Solve A Problem Like Martin?

Having repeatedly failed to get anyone to help tutor Hasek (either they refused or he did) I finally decided to see if there were any options available to me through speaking to my Captain under the ‘Ambassadorial’ category. There weren’t, but what I did see was interesting; between my Captain and Vice Captain I had the ability to ask them to try and assist in resolving ‘conflicts’ between Hasek and a couple of other first team regulars.

Having never seen any news/advice regarding potential personality clashes, and with nothing in the youngsters profile (Fairly Professional/Level-Headed), am I supposed to know that there’s been some kind of issues? If so, how?

MOVING FORWARD

It would be ridiculous to suggest that the season was plain sailing at any point, and whilst we got away with it (again) this time around there’s a clear need for us to strengthen the squad significantly. I quickly roughed this up to give me an overview of my core of first team players and prospects.

I’m planning to move a few players on, although I’ve left one of them in (Lucas Bijker) as he’s currently more crucial in terms of squad depth. We’ve reached a point where it’s clear that the likes of Klingmann, Mauersberger, Varnhagen, Mast are just not going to get games. I need to be careful though, as I need to be able to maintain a squad that can meet the Home Grown status rules for European competition; either I use Under 19s to bulk up that element of the squad, in the knowledge that I’ll never field them, or I hang onto one or two of our fringe players who could be called on in a pinch.

I suspect that it’ll be a mixture of the two, so wouldn’t be surprised to see at least one of the above retained (Dennis Mast, most likely, due to his versatility). Even Lukas Van Eenoo, who had a pretty decent impact in his first season, doesn’t look like he can keep up with our rise in stature, although he’ll definitely stick around for at least one more season.

The shape here isn’t entirely accurate, if we play with a flat three in the middle of the park then the MC-A tends to be the central point, with the MC-D to one side, but it works for illustrative purposes.

Following that initial assessment, and before further consideration of tactics (see below), I began to compile a ‘shopping list’ – either for new signings, or players to bring through from the youth ranks.

Essentially what the squad-depth assessment tells me is that, ignoring any flat out upgrades, we’re light on depth in a couple of areas.

Another wingback (left-sided, ideally) wouldn’t go amiss, although we have a decent youth option in Rüdiger Braun who is one of two U19 players on our books described as ‘the next Stefan Reuter’ – and someone who I’ve recently turned down a £2.3m bid for.

Another DC is probably a high priority, and it’s also one of the key areas for us to begin to upgrade in as I’m a firm believer in prioritising a strong spine to the squad.

We can probably get by with a combination of Buchel and/or youth players in the DM role, in fact the central midfield area is generally fairly well catered for, but the wide AM players could do with bolstering if we’re going to continue to use them.

Up front it’s all down to whether I feel like Micanski can continue to perform as a backup (and whether he’ll accept that role). Ducksch is the stronger option on paper, and Marton has finally started to show some progress, through starting a lot of games in the Inside Forward position on the left. I’ll be aiming to trying to juggle Marton and Lansbury in the AML area, to keep things going on that front, but the youngster can always push up front in a pinch.

Summarised, my list looked like this...

• DL (Rotation option, or potentially a youth from our U19s).
• DC (someone with experience and the ability to compete at the top of the game).
• DMC (Possibly. Similar to the DL).
• AM RL (?) (Ideally someone who can play both sides, rather than looking for two players).
• SC? (Possibly another striker. The ideal would be to find someone who can cover that and the AM slots)

TACTICAL EVOLUTION

Around the time that I hit the end of the season, and first started trying to write this update (and compile my plans for 2018/19) @JLAspey came up with a(nother) great tactical piece that caught my imagination, particularly given our continued role in Europe and the need to try and find that next level of performance when acting as the out-and-out underdog.

Jonathon is one of the Tweeters/posters who both comes up with consistenly interesting ideas, and presents them in straight forward terminology - with clear examples - which make them really easy to understand. I heartily recommend following him on Twitter, if you're a frequenter of that platform, and also checking out his input at The Dugout where he goes under the name of Cheeky Deeky.

Here's a link to his newest piece, which really struck a chord with me. It's a great read, and I urge you to give it a read through before proceeding any further. Mr Aspey will talk at length about concepts that I'll just skim over here.

@JLAspey's Narrow 4-1-2-2-1 'Defensive' formation

Supposedly 'defensive' tactics are what led to my brief World Cup save with Mexico, and ultimately to my first World Cup win – but as we saw at the start of last season it didn’t transfer particularly well to Karlsruhe. What I particularly like about this tactic is the use of the touchline as a kind of extra man, and pressing wide players up against it whilst retaining a numerical advantage to ‘clog up’ the middle of the pitch.

It almost feels like a concept that Malcolm Gladwell talks about in the first chapter of his excellent ‘David and Goliath’, wherein he describes how a novice basketball coach took an approach of playing outside of perceived wisdom, and 'the right way', to lead an unfancied team to significant results – almost the on-pitch equivalent of Moneyball’s approach to player dealings.

By allowing the opposition the freedom to run the flanks ‘unopposed’ we’re doing something unexpected and giving them a perceived advantage, but in fact will be looking to use that against them – reducing their effectiveness through the middle of the park where we’ll have the ability to create overloads. As ever with football tactics, it's a game of risk and reward, of checks and balances, and the concepts behind this tactic immediately clicked with me.

With the above in mind, and sticking to my concept from last season of 7 or 8 ‘fixed’ core players with the other positions shifting (a concept that that this narrow 4-1-2-2-1 adheres to), I drafted some rough ideas for the coming season’s tactical set.

As you can see, I’ve stuck to my plan of a core set of positions, and some variations for the others (highlighted).

Our base 4-3-2-1, which has continued to serve us well, will remain and I’m also keen to try and push towards a full 4-2-3-1; the ultimate goal that I set as a target some time ago.

As ever some of the Roles here are subject to change. In particular I have vague ideas, with the 4-2-3-1, of maybe playing the AM line as an Inside Forward (either AML or R), a Shadow Striker, and a wide Advanced Playmaker (on the other flank). That would see the AP asked to sit narrower and the wingback on that side encouraged forward – just spitballing at the moment.

Also I’m showing this with 2xMCs, but I’m toying with the idea of 2xDMCs or even a split with something like BWM in the DMC and a man in the MC – time will tell.

@JLAspey’s defensive tactic will give us our third option, and will likely be employed for games away from home and/or against tougher opposition.

PLAYERS TO FIT THE TACTICS

There’s always a debate around whether you fit players to a tactic or vice versa. If I was inheriting a top-class squad, or one at a lower level that I had no scope or resources to improve, then I would definitely favour the ‘tactics to suit your players’ approach. As it is we’re definitely going to continue to invest in the first team squad in the short term, so I’m happy to look at the other approach – although all of my current crop certainly fit into at least one or two of the formations above, if not all three.

A common factor in my style of play is the use of ‘Hassle Opponents’ to create a pressing game, and that’s clearly evident as an important part of the newer defensive tactic. In the past I’ve generally filtered out targets based on the technical attributes associated with their intended role, but not necessarily some of the mental/physical traits.  

Given the importance of the press I feel like I need to prioritise more attributes in any future signings. Work Rate is one, and Stamina the other; the latter can be more easily trained, but I’ll still look for players with a decent baseline, as for Work Rate I’ll be looking for this from the get-go – a player will have to be exceptional elsewhere for me to accept a lower rating.

Thankfully, in reviewing the current first team squad, the majority have a Work Rate trait of 13 or more (I’ll be aiming for 14+ as a baseline going forward). The only real standouts are Marton (8, but plenty of room to develop), Ducksch (10), and Lansbury (11). As attack-minded players I’m less worried about these just now, but only as they’re current players.

So, whilst playing through our early pre-season matches, I set about filling the gaps in our squad depth. We played through our first pre-season mini-tour (the Czech Republic) before any new faces arrived, and the narrow 4-1-2-2-1 shape produced very pleasing results, and very nice looking attacking football, although mostly against weaker opposition.

NEW FACES

First on the inbound list, and on a surprisingly modest deal, is Almamy Touré. At just £1.3m, and wages under £20k, I’m delighted at the prospect of adding him to our roster. Monaco have never given him much of a chance, and instead farmed him out on loan for each of the last three seasons.

He’s had a few injuries over the years, but nothing massive, and only one of more than 3 or 4 weeks (hamstring tear in 2013) so I’m hoping that we’ll get plenty out of him.

He has room to develop further, but I’m not seeing anything that causes me real concerns on the defensive front. As a bonus he can also fill in at the DMC slot, so that’s two birds killed with one stone. As a double bonus he’s listed as a Model Professional, so time to get some tutoring scheduled – as long as I have other tutors available who can help maintain players’ Determination. 11 isn’t terrible, but it’s not great either.

With low Aggression and high Anticipation and Positioning he seems the ideal man to play as the ‘covering’ partner of a defensive pairing – or he can offer an option as a somewhat creative player in the DM areas.

I also decided to look at options to further strengthen those DM areas, on the basis that I may well look to operate with two very physical and combative men; Touré and N’Diaye are good options, a third would be most welcome. Also Premier League teams were starting to sniff around Jon Williams (Liverpool) and Oliver Norwood (Leicester), so I was far from sure that we would make it into the new season with both still on the books.

Aside from a couple of youth prospects, dropping straight into the U19s, the other new arrivals by late July were Junior Malanda, and a marquee signing (for us, at least) of Aleksander Mitrovic.

Coincidentally I’d watched the Bayern vs Wolfsburg season-opener the night before, but even Malanda’s miss in that one didn’t discourage me...

In the first instance Malanda looks like the ideal long-term option as the Ball Winning Midfielder in the heart of our defensive formation, and may find a similar role in our 4-2-3-1. Beyond that his all-round versatility gives us a bunch of options, even as a DC if push comes to shove. When trying to assemble a squad on something of a budget, versatility is a big plus for me.

Far less versatile, but potentially a far bigger signing  is Mitrovic

I said that I’d have to see a lot more in a player to accept a lower Work Rate from now on, and that’s just the case here. Of course there’ll be some call for him to track back for us, but as an out-and-out centre forward there was just too much about him to ignore.

I’d been tracking him for 2 or 3 months, deciding whether to make a move on a deal that I knew would blow our wage structure open, but in the end I had to do it – even if it effectively means the end of Micanski’s career.

In the 4-1-2-2-1 Mitrovic (or the Bulgarian) can lead the line with Duksch operating as the Shadow Striker. Elsewhere I expect Mitrovic will be our first choice every time, with Ducksch as the bench man. It’ll be interesting to see how Ducksch reacts, having been brought in and given the #9 shirt last season, but the opportunity to bring in Mitrovic was just too good to pass up and the general step-up in class is apparent.

If I can keep both happy, and still keep Micanski on side too, then I’ll be onto a winner.


So thatere you have it, our plans for the coming season, our second in the Champions League and one where we really need to consolidate our spot at the top end of the Bundesliga.

I'll leave things there for now, but as usual please feel free to drop me a note in the Comments about anything that you like... well, not 'anything' but you get the idea ...or catch me on Twitter as @flipsix3_FM

Cheers.