Friday 16 January 2015

The Long Cold Winter - Part II



Okay, so last time out I took a lot of time to consider our defensive game and arrived at the decision that I’m generally satisfied with the way we’re playing at the back – although I do have a minor tweak to consider in the first instance.

I also picked out some interesting stats about our attacking game, and the ‘economy’ of our shooting and goal-scoring. Whilst I was writing that up, however, it struck me that I’m not entirely sure about the best way to deploy my strike partnership. Furthermore, as I started to dig deeper, I realised just how much info there is in Football Manager that I (and, I suspect, others) pay very little attention to.

Actually that’s not entirely fair, I always knew that it was there, I just never really looked at it. What I’m looking to do this time out is to start to scratch the surface of some of that info, but first I’ll get back to the question of the strike partnership.

I’ll apologise in advance, some or all of this may seem quite disjointed. You may feel like I’m stating the bloody obvious or that I’m just not making sense. This update is going to be something akin to me thinking out loud, and when I think too hard it’s not unusual for me to go in circles!
Anyway, on with the update...



MAKING THE BEST OF MY ATTACKING LINE(S)


As a rule I tend to play with Justice John and Morten Friis up front, and with Søren Petersen – who I’d picked up as a potential target man – coming off the bench. However I’ve not been consistent in terms of who occupies which role in our strike pairing, a pairing which consists of a Deep Lying Forward and a Complete Forward – both on Support duties.

I tend to go with whichever player looks most suited to the role, based on the graphical tips in the tactics interface, but I realise that this is made up of two parts. The colour of the star indicating how proficient the player is in the role, and the colour and size of the border indicating their relative suitability for that role compared to the rest of the squad.

All three of our senior strikers are rated as natural in either position, but their ‘comparative’ rating varies greatly for each. I’ve never analysed where we’re actually getting the best results out of them.

First up here are the three players in question.








I mentioned last time about training PPMs (Player Preferred Moves), specifically the ‘Placed Shots’ one. At present neither Friis nor Petersen have any PPMs, John does, in the form of ‘Moves Into Channels’ – something that is adequately represented in the match engine, particularly when he plays in the Complete Forward role on the right.

In terms of basic performance stats here’s what they look like in our season so far. This is based on all competitive games, and not just those where we’ve played the 5-3-2.




It’s worth noting that Justice John was, before the advent of the 5-3-2, often employed in an AMR or even MR position. In fact he’s started up front on only 10 of those 16 appearances. Unfortunately, whilst I can see average ratings broken down by position (on the Overview > Information screen), the more detailed info (available on the Reports > Stats page) doesn’t allow that differentiation as far as I can see. There’s nothing for it, I’m going to have to do some digging to get some fairly rudimentary information out of the match stats myself.

This was the outcome, bear in mind that there may appear to be more appearances than shown above, as I’ve split stats where the player occupied more than one position at some point during the match.



 


To my eye this tells me that John plays the Complete Forward role really well, and that I’ve been doing the right thing putting him there. Sure his stats for one appearance as the DLF look good, but it’s too small a sample size and he’s just far too good in the more advanced role. The thing is, given how well he’s played in the AMR or MR slots, I kind of feel like a deeper lying role would be more suited. The graphical representation in the tactics screen seems to back that up, indicating that in terms of our squad he’s close to being our strongest option at Deep Lying Forward.
 
Morten Friis is rated as the star man at DLF though, and that appears to be reflected in his stats. It’s a close thing, and I’m reassured enough that the pair can easily trade, but I’ll focus Friis onto his preferred DLF position going forward. Playing form that slightly deeper position possibly explains his somewhat poor 'shots on target' ratio too, as he does have a habit of hitting them from range more than his partner.

Petersen is interesting, again he’s rated as ‘natural’ in either role, and a stronger option at DLF than CF in terms of our squad depth, but from a very limited sample group I’m leaning towards the Complete Forward slot where his ‘assists per appearance’ is significantly better. He rarely starts, and I’m not going to rely on him to score goals as much as be the big guy who wreaks havoc in an opponent’s defensive lines.

Probably the clearest thing to take from this is that we’ve got three really good DLF options, all of whom can play as a Complete Forward, but none of whom is really cut out for it. The formation-specific squad depth report (Squad > Squad Depth > Current Formation) highlights this, and I’m actually quite surprised at how ‘poorly’ everyone rates in that role.




Now I’m not about to worry, our results and statistics show that this is far from a pressing issue, but I’m keen to understand the reasons behind this assessment. Here are the *cough* comprehensive and informative *cough* tooltips for the roles in question.




Both make sense I suppose, but given the level we’re playing at I’m struggling to understand why each of our front three rate so poorly for the wider scope of the Complete Forward role. I’m not suggesting for one minute that any of them are a world class striker, but it’s just a little confusing given that they all have significant holes in their ‘key attributes’ for the DLF role and yet rate well for it.

Of course the fact that both Friis and John are small men (5’9” and 5’8” respectively) is probably a factor in their cases. Petersen ( 6’6”) is an entirely different proposition in the air, but has more holes in his suite of attributes.

I guess the simple fact of the matter is play Friis and John as our two best strikers, and trust the statistics which suggest that the latter is the marginally better option for the Complete Forward. Beyond that, if we do go hunting for another striker at some point then focus on a potential CF.




DIGGING DEEPER


In looking more closely at these three players I noticed for the first time just how detailed the Scout/Coach reports now are, or at least how user-friendly they are in presenting their data. In particular I spotted this on Justice John’s profile.




Two interesting factors that should definitely be at the forefront of my thinking. The first I would likely pick up over time, although I've yet to see any evidence of it in his performances - probably as he's just so good for this level. Knowing that it’s a part of his character means that I can keep a closer watch on him though – potentially rotating him out, or switching his place around in the strike partnership, if his performances start to slip.

The second is a ‘trait’ that has been in the game for as long as I can remember, but I don’t recall it ever being as visible as this. Of course it’s somewhat dependant on the quality of my staff (not great), who need to interpret the player, but again it’s worth being aware of. He did great in the Brøndby match, which I’m assuming would qualify, but maybe it would be worth keeping him out of such fixtures in the future; if he doesn’t enjoy them, and we have a poor match, is that likely to lead to a drop in his form – further exaggerated by that other trait? Food for thought.

Spotting that led me to looking through the reports for the entire playing roster, but particularly the key first team players, to see if there are any other major issues to be aware of.  Two or three players, including a couple of key starters, rate somewhere between ‘poor’ and ‘very poor’ for Big Matches – although I don’t see us getting involved in too many anyhow.

In addition a couple of first teamers have apparent Consistency issues, and one of our hot prospects to potentially fill a central midfield role is somewhat Injury Prone.

None of these really worry me right now, the last probably moreso than the others, but it feels like a good habit to get into checking. When my career progresses, and I get on to bigger and better clubs and competitions, then squad management around these issues could be a key part of the job. I just need to make sure that I stay in the habit of compiling extensive scouting/coaching dossiers and actually reading them!




SQUAD OVERHAUL


Finally, before progressing into the winter break, it felt like a good time to carry out a review of the squad – something which I’d only given brief thought at the start of the game. Once again our amateur status is an advantage here, making it very easy to remove unwanted players from the roster, and generally cheap to find replacements (if they're willing to sign).

To do this I looked at it in terms of our current tactic, and our strengths and weaknesses in respect of the specific roles employed.


GOALKEEPER


Nicolaj Christensen (24) rates pretty well (2.5 stars) and has performed okay throughout the season so far. 14 starts and 16 conceded doesn’t feel like a bad average, although the ‘Command of Area’ rating of 1 which I mentioned at the start of the save may well have contributed to the occasional howler. Has potential for significant improvement.

Martin Kjelde (22) has made 4 appearances, conceding twice, but doesn’t appear to have the potential to challenge Christensen long term.

Verdict: Upgrade if possible, but not a big problem area in the short to medium term.


CENTRAL DEFENDER (x3)


Steffen Algreen (35) has been a solid signing, adding experience, but his physicals will decline rapidly.

Nick Andersen (29) is our ‘star man’ in defence, and a 7.05 average rating from 15 league appearances backs this up. Hard worker and a big physical unit.

Niels Letort (19) has performed well for a youngster, and has potential. Needs to ‘bulk up’ in terms of Strength

One concern I do have here is that all three of my regular first teamers are right footed. Playing as a back three with the DCL, in particular, moving quite wide, it would be beneficial to have a left footed player in the mix. We’ve tended to play Letort on the left, but he’s the most one-footed of the trio so I need to tweak that.

Backup options are Søren Bojsen (22) and Christian Wogensen (20). Former has played a couple of games against weaker opposition, but lacks the bravery to get stuck in; he’s also very much right-footed and I don’t see a future for him here. Wogensen has made a handful of appearances and is a solid player, but somewhat injury prone and again only right-footed.

Verdict: Let Bojsen go, continue with current trio and Wogensen as backup, and look for a left footed option – ideally an experienced upgrade.


WINGBACKS


Rune Nautrup (26) has performed well on the right, although is more suited to the attacking side of the game – a fact that can be seen in the analysis from last time out. As a bonus he offers a decentg backup option on the left.

Jes Bekke (38, player-coach) has played nearly every game on the left. Rates fairly well, but we can’t continue to rely on him. Very slow, and is employed in a more static and defensive role.

We have a couple of youngsters who can deputise on the right, but neither are close to the level that we need to be looking for. On the left we have Hotan Mathews (31) who has deputised very occasionally, but he’s a long way off the pace and susceptible to injuries.

Verdict: Options required on both sides, priority area for improvement. Release Mathews and one of the DR options.


DEFENSIVE MIDFIELD (Deep-Lying Playmaker)


Mark Johansen (23) has taken over the slot from Martin Engels (29), but neither are particularly suited to the creative side of the role. Training focus will hopefully help the former to improve, but his form needs to show an upward trend.

Engels is better suited to a central midfield role but isn’t first choice there. He’ll continue to operate as a backup at DM.

Verdict: We’ll get by, but an upgrade would be great.


CENTRAL MIDFIELD (Box-to-Box and a Central Winger)


René Hansen (24) and Søren Zachariassen (22) currently hold down these two slots, Hansen usually in the Central Winger role. Both doing well, averaging 7.00+ ratings, and splitting 8 goals and 4 assists right down the middle. Neither are considered to be well suited to attacking midfield roles, but seem to be adapting to them well enough.

Backup options are numerous, but lacking any stand-out candidates. Mads Zederkorf (20) looks to have decent potential as a midfield playmaker, but is some way off the grade. Samim Kohestani (21) has played a couple of times, and done fairly well so is the prime candidate at present. Oliver Todsen (19) doesn’t inspire confidence.

Verdict: Release Todsen, retain other two as backups. Consider retraining one of our numerous attacking players (see below)


FORWARDS (DLF-S and CF-S)


Primary options covered well enough above, Friis (29) and John (28) with Petersen (28) as backup.

Ro Ingemann (20) has made 7 sub appearances and laid on a couple of goals, but lacks pace (among other attributes) – set up training to focus on Quickness.

In addition to above we have Jesper Hostrup (21) as an option, but identified as prone to injuries, along with two players who, like Petersen, are shown as ‘AM (L), ST (C)’ – Martin Jensen (23) and Simon Smidt (24).

Of the pair Smidt is rated slightly higher, but also has the ability (albeit needing a lot of development) to play at wingback. Jensen has some promise as a winger.

Verdict: Main three are a given, retain Ingemann as our 4th man up front. Release Hostrup, work on Smidt as a wingback option, and attempt to retrain Jensen as a Central Winger.



We have a plan, time to crack on with the winter break where I’ll concentrate on looking for wingbacks – including potential loan signings from Brøndby (we have an affiliation, which I’d somehow overlooked), setting up friendly matches to bring us back up to speed for our title challenge, and hoping that our coaches are good enough to get Jensen and Smidt adapted to their new roles.

The good news is that our brilliant form so far has put us in a strong position, and even without strengthening I'm confident that we could have a run at the title. It would be great to bring in new faces though, not only would they boost our chances, but they'd also get half a season of playing time to gel with the rest of the squad and build that all important team cohesion.



As ever folks, thanks for reading and I hope that you found something of use, or at least just interest.

Feel free to drop something in the Comments box below, or hit me up on Twitter : @flipsix3_FM

Cheers!

2 comments:

Unknown said...

Really enjoying this series mate, keep it up :)

flipsix3 said...

Thanks for the encouragement Chris, much appreciated.