The World Cup May Be Over, But Mine Isn't.

RECOMMENDED READING:

Before we get into this update, I wanted to just drop a few links on you for great articles and threads that I’ve read over the last week or so. It’s something I want to try and remember to do more often.

This excellent piece by FMAnalysis on the Brazil vs Germany World Cup semi-final. Whilst not overly complicated in its language, it offers some decent insight into Brazil's main mistakes on the night. I have the game recorded, and will be re-watching it at some point with this article to hand. 

Next up is this very interesting post at SI Games from jpcote09. I'm going to need to read it more than once, and even then it feels like the sort of thing that I'd need to make some little summary notes from to take away just a few of the core ideas. If you want to get a real understanding of how individual Team/Player Instructions impact your tactics in FM14 then look no further. 

Finally take a look at this little beauty from @Cleon81 on the SI Games forums. Along with its connected 'Discussion' thread it promises to be really interesting. I've already spent a good period of time on the first match, and feel like I'm taking something away from it. 

Okay, enough with the homework already, what about the World Cup?

Last time out I gave a very brief look at a tactic that I wanted to road-test through the World Cup, primarily looking at two particulars:

• Firstly the use of a ‘flat’ back three, plus a holding defensive midfielder, to create a defensive diamond.
• Secondly a move back towards two strikers, one potentially in a withdrawn role, to enable me to give Jimmy Marton more game time for Karlsruhe.

Here’s what I ended up with, initially with the intention of setting up with a Defensive mentality.

The back three actually seemed quite a common occurrence during the World Cup,  and I was particularly impressed by the way that the Dutch operated it. Their back line seemed to have freedom to run with the ball if the opportunity allowed, with one of two ‘defensive’ central midfield players dropping back to provide cover.

That’s something that I’d like to replicate in FM, but as thing stand I’m not sure that the tactics engine has the scope to allow it – my big wish for future development on the tactics front would be to have certain ‘situational triggers’. Imagine the ability to apply Player Instructions that say things like ‘close down Player X when receiving a long pass’ or ‘drop back to cover if Player Y goes forward’. In the case of the latter I guess that it may have been somewhat doable in and around FM2005, using the ‘swap position with’ instruction, but that’s not really what I would be looking for.

If anyone feels that this sort of complexity is currently available then by all means let me know how!

Anyway, back to the plan. With the defensive diamond in place, and a pivot ahead in the form of a Deep-Lying Playmaker, the wide men should be free to join in with the attacking play; the right wingback and the ‘Central Winger’ (©Jonathon Aspey) being the main supply lines for the ‘strikers’.

The first outing was a pre-tournament tie with the host nation, and a pretty poor result with a 2-0 defeat. What made it worse, and had me doubting my abilities as a manager, was the fact that it was Hulk who scored against me, twice; the same Hulk who I’d just watched over several games, and who had only been ousted as Brazil’s least effective player by the unbelievably dire Fred.

It struck me part of the way through the game that a Defensive mentality was overly conservative, and a big ask to get a result with the underdogs. To some it may be the intuitive way to play, but to my mind you really want to be at least on a level playing field in terms of quality if you’re going to pursue a Defensive-based win – otherwise you’re just inviting wave after wave of pressure. I’m not saying that you can’t win with a defensive setup, there are numerous threads and blogs out there that demonstrate otherwise – some of which I linked in my last update. What I am saying is that with my level of tactical nous, and with Mexico, it’s perhaps not the way to go.

We also struggled to get Hernandez involved, playing in the Shadow Striker slot, and at the break I pushed him up to give us a Poacher/DLF-S. The change up front, and the slightly more adventurous play (mixing up Counter and Standard), saw us offer a greater threat and keep a clean sheet. The Central Winger showed good signs of linking up with the front pair, especially with the Deep-Lying Forward dropping back to receive the ball and produce that vertical separation that gives the opposition defense a choice to make.

Not a terrible result, all things considered, but I expected Nigeria and Turkey to offer a better indication.

TALKING TURKEY

For the second game I persevered with the Defensive outlook to begin with, but again I wasn’t happy with what I was seeing. Often, when not in possession, the wingbacks immediately dropped back to effect a flat back five with little or no pressure applied to the opponent’s wide men unless they were on the ball. Here’s an example with Turkey’s wing players (in a 4-4-2), and my wingbacks, circled. You can also see how deep the rest of my midfield was sitting.

I tweaked the wingbacks’ instructions at this point, giving them both ‘Close Down More’, and again shifted from Defensive to Counter. With things goalless at the break I also went to the two striker combination for the second half.

At the 58 minute mark I got the first example of the sort of attacking play I was after...

It’s a great team move that builds from the back, our left-most ‘central’* defender pushing the ball up to Gaurdado at wingback. His simple ball into the Anchor Man is quickly laid off to the Deep Lying Playmaker, and in turn to the Central Winger. A quick run and pass to Hernandez loses us possession briefly, as the striker was being too closely monitored, but it’s great build-up and it does ultimately lead to a shot.  

* Note: At the back you can see the sort of spreading of the back three that was causing consternation for many keyboard tacticians early in FM14’s life. True it looks like you could run an army through the gaps, but in reality I’ve yet to see any real exploitation of this when we turn the ball over – the defence quickly adopts a more compact shape then. 

Hernandez (operating as the Poacher) recovers from being dispossessed and receives the ball back. Spotting the run of the Central Winger he threads a through ball for a regulation finish, unfortunately Giovanni Dos Santos screws his shot just wide.

It’s not long before we’re ahead though, and it’s Dos Santos with another Central Winger run who does the damage in a fine counter-attack move. Hernandez recovers the ball in a deep position and switches it out wide for Guardado, whilst Dos Santos and Jimenez start their runs...

Jimenez (DLF-S) checks his run, feeds Perez (DLP-S), who hits a pass into the path of Dos Santos...

One driving run later, and a simple diagonal pass puts Hernandez through to finish fromt the edge of the area...

Turkey equalise, but another two goals on the break give us the win. The first comes courtesy of a long ball over the top from Guardado, wide left, with Carlos Fierro latching onto it for his first international goal. The second sees Fierro turned creator, and a cross from the edge of the box for Hernandez to poke home. A 3-1 win, playing on the Counter, and with just 38% of possession.

By this stage it feels like things are working nicely, albeit with two ‘proper’ strikers rather than the Shadow Striker, and with a Counter-based mentality as the default approach.

The final pre-tournament game goes one better, with our first clean sheet as we completely dominate Nigeria in Washington DC.

Two more for Fierro is a bonus (he should have had a hat-trick to be honest), and I took the opportunity to tweak things a little. Against slightly more evenly matched opponents, and with the right personnel in the squad, I played with a Regista in the DM slot to provide the deep-lying creativity, and a Ball Winning Midfielder alongside the Central Winger. I’m not 100% sold on that pairing for all games, but it worked for this one as we bossed the game.

All things considered the tactic appeared to be working well, but obviously the acid test would come in competitive action.

THE GROUP STAGES

Sticking with the Counter approach, and a front pairing of Fierro (Poacher) and Hernandez (DLF-S) – the former having earned his place with form in the friendlies, we take a 9th minute lead from the spot before Ivory Coast peg us back just before the break. What’s becoming clear is that with strikers somewhat isolated at times, pace is going to be a big factor in the success of this tactic...

... as evidenced when we take the lead again. A quick break via a ball over the top to Hernandez, a square ball to Fierro who runs it into the channel, before returning the favour with a low ball across the six-yard box. Quick and simple.

Hector Moreno then sends the Mexican contingent into rapture as we take a two-goal lead ,which we hold until the 88th minute. Cue nervous glances, and then massive relief as the whistle blows.

Neither Ivory Coast goal worries me in terms of our formation. The first comes from a corner, and reminds me that I haven’t set up any set-piece instructions. The second sees an angled ball swung into a well defended box, and an unfortunate ricochet of one of our back three that leaves Ochoa stranded – I’m happy to put that one down to pure bad luck.

Meanwhile England thump Slovakia 6-1 (yeah, right) leaving me thinking that they’re looking nailed on to top the group. Fortunately for us it could be all over by the time we face them, as we have the Slovakians next up.

Changes are required due to the busy schedule, leaving me pleased that it’s Slovakia and not England. I make five swaps and risk two more guys who are showing as tired. Slovakia field a flat back four, and then a narrow 2-3-1 in midfield – it feels like a good matchup for us, with a lot of bodies in our defensive strata and no Defensive Mids to hamper our Central Winger and deeper striker.

Two disallowed goals (offsides) inside 25 minutes give me confidence, but when Jorge Enriquez (Anchor Man) dives into a challenge and earns a straight red I’m forced to reconsider. Dropping our DLP back and employing him as a Regista, we’re now left with just Giovanni Dos Santos (Central Winger) in the centre of the park – and I withdraw one forward to the Shadow Striker position. Good interplay between this pair sets up Fierro to give us a deserved second half lead, before the same three combine again for the second.

In both cases Dos Santos opts to play the pass to our Shadow Striker, rather than making the run, and it’s the latter who supplies the through-ball for Fierro. Clearly playing one forward in such a withdrawn position will have an impact on the decision making of the Central Winger, potentially reducing his inclination to make forward runs.

Again our opponents grab a late goal. Having played two thirds of the game with a man disadvantage I’m not entirely surprised, but some poor positioning from our DC-C is to blame and is slightly annoying.

I would be a whole lot more annoyed, but when Ivory Coast hold England to a 1-1 draw the next day our qualification from the Group Stage is assured; furthermore we’ll get an extra day’s rest before we meet England.

My assumption is that the qualifiers from our group (G) will face those from Group H, that’s how the real thing worked, but I can’t see anything to confirm either way in FM. Italy have already assured themselves of going through from Group H with 6 points, South Africa lie second with 3, whilst Turkey and Jamaica have a point each. Italy have Jamaica next, so I’ve got them nailed on as group winners; if we want to avoid the Italians then we’re going to need at least a point against a strong looking English side.

THE BIG GAME

England have favoured a wide 4-2-3-1 this far in the tournament, and don’t appear to have quite the same degree of conditioning (tiredness) issues that we do. I’m not often one to try and play for a draw, but it’s on my mind going into this one. The only tweaks, for now, are to set our wingbacks to more defensive duties, to concentrate on picking up Rooney and Walcott in the wide-AM slots – but to not mark tightly, as I expect Walcott at least would thrive on his pace if we tried to get too close.

Talking of Walcott, given his massive influence in previous games I’ve gone with what might be seen as a risky approach. The two central midfielders have been swapped, putting the more attacking guy on the right. The player on the left is set to double up on Walcott, thus removing him from the central midfield battle somewhat. This allows my right wingback to sit a little deeper and provide extra cover.

Walcott’s midfield marker is asked to go in hard on tackles; he’s clearly a key player for England (looking at the stats from previous games), and with low bravery I’m hoping to discourage him from too many mazy runs.

The result?

On the one hand we might be considered fortunate, with Hernandez’s early goal giving us wriggle-room, but by the same standard we were unlucky to concede the goal that we did following a ridiculous passage of defenders heading the ball onto their own bar and the like.

As for the stats, Walcott made a total of two successful runs past his marker compared to eight in the Slovakia game, and four in 20 minutes against Ivory Coast. I’d say that the slightly unorthodox approach paid off, although it’s always a risk and reward scenario – it left Gerrard with a lot of freedom in the middle of the park, and he spent the entire game firing accurate passes around (134 in total, but tellingly not a single key one)

Topping the table gets us a Last-16 tie with Turkey, and after our pre-tournament friendly I’m reasonably confident going into that one. Even better, if we get through we face a quarter-final tie against the winners of Ukraine vs Switzerland. Things seem to be doing a good job of falling in our favour.

STATISTICALLY SPEAKING

Before taking things any further though, a quick look at some post-match analysis data for the group
games. Of course I can’t do heat maps or the like, as I’m playing FMC mode, but I can look at some player data.

Firstly the key players that I need to understand are Reyes, as the central (and deeper) man in the back three, Jonathan Dos Santos as the guy covering the back line, and brother Giovanni as the ‘Central Winger’

The first two look solid, with Reyes particularly impressive; no missed tackles or headers, and plenty of interceptions. The two guys either side of him (Moreno and Dominguez) are solid as well and I do wonder whether the three is entirely necessary – perhaps the ‘defensive diamond’ could function well enough as the more frequently seen ‘defensive triangle’ of DCx2 and a DMC.

I’m actually tempted to try a ‘true’ diamond, with a Sweeper employed, but part of my reasoning behind this experiment is to look at alternatives for my Karlsruhe save where we have no Sweeper available.

Dos Santos (J) did a decent job defensively, and was more than adequate in his distribution too. The disappointment, in this game at least, was his brother who managed only one run past an opponent despite being encouraged to dribble plenty and having the attributes to support that.

The other disappointment is the crossing from our wingbacks (Aguilar and Guardado). Not a single cross completed between them. For Karlsruhe I’ve almost completely eliminated crossing from our game and, in retrospect, I should probably have done the same here (see below where the wingbacks are Aguilar/Aldrete, and Layun/Guardado respectively. A grand total of three completed crosses in as many matches).

For the second game Marco Fabián was given the ‘Central Winger’ role, whilst Enriquez took the DMC slot (for 30 minutes, at least). Again the back three look solid, and the Interceptions count is way up as they lose the covering man in front.

On the surface Fabián looks a better threat, although that may be down to the quality of the opposition, and two Key Passes are a nice addition. It’s also worth noting that at half time we withdrew a striker, shifted Fabián into the AMC zone (as a Shadow Striker) and put Giovanni back into the CW spot – it seems likely, therefore, that Fabián’s contribution came more in the second half (I could go back and rewatch, but really this is just quick casual save to try out the formation as a whole) .

On to England then, and a case of mistaken identity when I inadvertently go with Jonathan Dos Santos instead of Giovanni in the CW slot.  Pérez is the DMC this time, and it’s worth noting that he was employed as a Regista with Herrera (MCL) now a ‘vanilla’ CM (rather than a DLP) with instructions to help cover Walcott. Back line is Moreno – Reyes – Molina.

The interesting thing is the far fewer tackles for the defensive line, with England focussed much more down the flanks. Only Molina had any tackles, and he was over on the right side of the line. Has the work of Herrera and Moreno on the left done enough to nullify balls into that left channel? I know that I shouldn't need to ask that question, being the one who 'managed' match, however I'm still not great when it comes to analysing 'live' play on the fly.

Perez’s distribution is great, and we can certainly look to utilise that deeper pivot again. Jonathan doesn’t do a great deal (unsurprising given the misplacement on my part) but Giovanni gets three runs in late in the game, with England chasing the winner.

Overall I’m plenty happy with the performance of the tactic as a whole, although I’m still not really getting the Central Winger to do what it’s 'designed' to. In my main save I’ve put this down to having a striker dropping deep to often receive passes, I suspect that this may be a factor again. Perhaps it’s just a Role that needs plenty of space in order to operate as designed rather than finding simpler outlets. Given the results we’re getting though, I’m not about to change it.

As for the defensive ‘diamond’ I’m again happy, although I’m wary that it’s far too easy for me to dismiss the goals we do ship as a series of one-off mistakes. The England goal definitely falls into that camp, but I did recognise that the Slovakia goal was down to some poor positioning (albeit a momentary lapse rather than a complete howler).

SUDDEN DEATH

So our adventure continues into the knock-out phases, and I’ll drag this World Cup save out for one more update.

Mainly I’m doing this as I’m away on holiday soon, so there’s going to be a gap of two or three weeks. I’d rather wait until after that to start my next Karlsruhe season, than start it and then leave it hanging. I hope you’ll all indulge me in this, and enjoy the short sidetrack.

As ever, if you have any feedback on anything around the blog – content, format, or whatever else – then drop me a note in the Comments, or catch me on Twitter at @flipsix3_FM.

Cheers.