How Did It All Go So Right?

First up, the headlines. Did we make it into European competition? No, we did not, thanks to SC Bastia’s inability to beat PSG in the French Cup final. Despite their 15^th place finish, the fact that they got to the final gives them the final qualifier spot for the Europa League. Had they somehow won, we would’ve been in, but I suspect that they never had any intention of actually trying, why bother? They'd already stolen our thunder. 

Selfish bunch of wasters.

Bitter? Moi?

Anyway, on to more positive matters...

It would be fair to say that, once we got a few games in, last season kind of ran away with me. Whilst I could go back and try to analyse some matches from it in detail, the time elapsed since (in game) somewhat limits the amount of change that I can make based on such a review. As Stephen King says in his ‘Joyland’ novel, “when it comes to the past, everyone writes fiction”. The further back I look, the more likely it is that I’ll (at least subconsciously) overlook some important points because I’m already aware of the outcome of not just the match in question, but also the entire season.

That’s not to say that there isn’t something to be taken away from a general retrospective though, so I have taken a look through some key points.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, during the season there were few occasions, if any, where I was genuinely disappointed to walk away with a draw. Okay, so there were odd games where we conceded late to share the points, but had you offered me a draw before kick-off the chances are that I would’ve taken it 90% of the time.

Looking back now, with full awareness of where our season would finish, 16 draws could easily be seen as a frustrating statistic. 16 of them meant 16 points though, and would I really be prepared to go back and potentially sacrifice those points – and the 11 places of difference they account for – for the chance to grab a few more wins?

It’s all water under the bridge either way, and personally I’ll focus on the positives from it – sixteen games where our defence was able to keep the opposition ‘down’ at our level. It’s telling that, if you look at our squad stats for the season, four of the five highest average ratings went to defenders – Laoudihi being the one exception, thanks to his haul of 9 assists and 4 goals.

One of those defensive players, Mathieu Petit, may have only made half a dozen appearances - covering for the injured Durwael, late in the season – but behind him was Dembele, making it five of the top six rated players. It’s pretty self evident that, despite the belief that we’d be below par at the back, it was the work of Bauer and Amofa that laid the foundations for our excellent season.

This pair ended up as my go-to central defensive partnership toward the end of the season, although Amofa started out more as a rotational option in the DM slot. By the end of the campaign he’d played his new role 20 times, compared to 11 as a DM.

What’s not immediately obvious, to me, is just why they rated so highly. Their success rate on tackles (87% for Bauer, 84% for Amofa who was still adapting to the DC role) looks impressive to my untrained eye, especially given the step up in quality to Ligue 1, but the stats also suggest that Bauer only averaged 3.26 tackles per match, and Amofa 3.85 per outing – neither look like huge figures to me. That said, taking a look at some of PSG’s central defenders I see that their averages we only in the 4.5-5.2 range, so maybe my pair are better than I give them credit for. I just kind of expected that, with our underdog status, they would've been under far more pressure to make tackles more frequently.

I suspect that, in the case of Bauer at least, aerial dominance is also a major factor. Although not reflected in the Detailed Stats view, checking on a few matches at random indicates that our German powerhouse was completing somewhere between 66% and 80% of attempted headers in a game, regularly running into double figures.  He may not be the most mobile of defenders, but at a towering 6’4” – and with Jumping, Heading and Strength all rating 16 – he was obviously a handful for opposition forwards looking to latch on to high balls. Also, when looking at those same match stats, I'm seeing our DC pairing each putting in anywhere from 5 to 12 interceptions per match - it stands to reason that, if our opposition were trying to pass through our defence, then this is going to be a bigger factor than tackles.

Okay, so maybe I am beginning to piece together just why they were so well rated (relatively speaking, at least).

Overall I suspect that it was our strong defensive culture throughout the middle of the park that paid dividends in the campaign. Ahead of the DC pairing we either featured a DM, and one defensively-biased MC, or a pair of solid MCs where we deployed Coco in the hole behind our striker. Given the versatility of players like Irvine (the best tackler on our squad, but frequently found in central midfield), Ferri, Amofa, and Grimm – backed up by strong defensive attributes in the fullback positions – I’d suggest that we were building from a relatively solid foundation.

That idea is probably also reflected in the performance at the other end of the pitch where, despite the outcome of the season, we weren’t exactly free-scoring. Very few assists came through the middle of the pitch, other than from Coco, so whilst we weren’t relying on crosses to a target man our main threat clearly came from out wide whilst our central midfield maintained a more conservative approach.

Back in FM12 I used to build a lot around the idea of central midfielders slotting through balls for a pacy striker to run onto. I’ve not yet found a reliable way to do that in my FM14 save, although that may be as much because of a general lack of pace as anything else. Frankly, if we can keep playing the way we did this time around, I’m not too worried about it just yet.

Another thing to note in the stats for Bauer and Amofa is their disciplinary record, which was reflected in the squad as a whole – resulting in us receiving a modest bonus payout as the ‘cleanest’ team in Ligue 1.

POINTS TO CONSIDER

So, in very broad terms, what are the development factors that I need to take away from the season, what went particularly right or wrong? Realistically it feels harsh to say that anything went wrong, but things that ought to be considered:

-          Still not great returns from strikers.

We definitely need to consider bringing more players into the supply chain. My initial thinking here is a combination of a strike partnership (Sylla and Balde are very similar players, so ideally might not be best suited) and/or a more offensively minded central midfield. 

-          We could make better use of wingbacks.

Both Munch (on the left) and Durwael (right) are both more suited as Wingbacks than Fullbacks, Munch in particular - and he has the potential to be one of the best players at our club this season, so it would be good to see what he can do in his preferred role. That offers challenges though, and realistically could mean compromising the strength of our back line. There’s also the question of combining WB roles with wide midfielders – Mata and Laoudihi would either need to be pushed into AML/AMR positions, or sacrificed with the Wingbacks providing our only width.

I had been looking to develop Munch as a defensive winger, but given the limited attacking outlets we have I’m keen to retain the ML/MR slots as more offensive spots. My expectation is that this season will see Munch focusing more on developing his Fullback abilities, although I wouldn’t rule out trying to develop a ‘wingless’ formation at some point.

-          The development of Amofa as a DC.

Very happy with the progress made on this front, as I was keen to get a player with better distribution attributes at the back. With Irvine having become a fixture in the middle of the park, Amofa’s ability to slip into the DC role has been pleasing – although work is still needed on some of defensive attributes.

In more general terms, I’ve not done much positional retraining in the past and this ‘success’ encourages me to look at our youth ranks not just in terms of their current position but also how I can potentially mould them to help fill gaps in our squad – rather than buying players in.

Here's a great piece I was reading around the ways to make the best use of your own squad through retraining.

LOOKING AHEAD

Talking of ‘holes’ in the squad, here’s a list of first team players who’ll be leaving us during this summer. In terms of my preferred tactics that means a Squad Depth Chart that looks something like this, when looking at my current First Team roster (those players who saw meaningful senior action during this campaign).

Clearly, once you start to spot the repetition, that’s not a lot of depth; 19 players covering 11 positions, and three of those are Keepers (although he hasn’t yet played for the senior side, I’ve included Cognard as he was promoted from the U19 squad when we managed to offload N’Tima in January 2017).

In broad terms, here’s how I’m feeling about the squad that makes up that chart.

Goalkeepers:
Despite a strong report when we first picked him up, Saussez has become stunted in terms of development. Kehi has, once again, come to the fore and I’m comfortable with giving him the No.1. jersey.

Cognard will become the understudy, whilst I do what I can to keep Saussez happy for a final season – his Model Professional personality is something I want to imprint onto Cognard, but it’s going to be a balancing act to keep him on side for another year.

Central Defence:
Bauer and Amofa are settling in well as a partnership, whilst Dembele offers a reasonable backup option. Irvine can drop in, but realistically isn’t likely too. We need to add depth here, ideally I’m going to want three solid options and a couple of fallback positions (of which Irvine may be one). An area where I might look at making a ‘major’ signing.

DR:
Durwael will keep the armband and keep his position here. Petit can operate as second choice, and from the bench can play anywhere up the right side as a bonus; his defensive game needs work though, and will be the focus of his development. We also have a deal in place to bring in this youngster from Tiko Utd in Cameroon

A bit of an added bonus here, in that he can play on either end of the back four, so will give us an option on the left if we’re stretched.

DL:
Munch is the better all round player, but whilst his development has slowed Mayoukou is slightly stronger in defensive positions. It’s pretty much a coin-toss between them but Munch is likely to feature more. In case of emergencies I'll look to the youth setup; I don’t expect to make any signings here.

DM:
When this position is used Grimm tends to get the nod, but with the exception of aerial ability Jordan Ferri pretty much matches him in every department. With Grimm’s lack of versatility I may look to cash in, if I can generate interest. As this is a position that isn’t always filled, I’m comfortable with less depth here; there’s also a lot of potential in our U19’s at this position.

MC:
If a DM is deployed, we’re looking at a first choice partnership of Irvine (box-to-box) and Coco (MC-S/A), if there’s no DM then it’s something like Irvine (MC-D/S) and Ferri (DLP-S).

Scougall can fill in, but realistically is more likely to feature out wide. Like the DC position, I’d like a bit more experience here so I may look to the market, but again there’s a lot of youth talent in the 16-17 age bracket.

MR:
Laoudihi will continue to hold down the slot, his Pace and Acceleration will give anyone a challenge. Scougall will be trained to perform on the flanks (he needs to work on speed-related physicals). With Petit also able to push forward into the slot I’m comfortable.

ML:
All about Luis Mata; he’s naturally inclined to the right side, and rated marginally higher there, but given that I want my wide men to cut in from the flanks he’ll continue on the left. Munch can step in to cover in a pinch, or where we want to be more defensive, but really need a second attacking option here. Scougall can do it, but that’s stretching our depth.

AMC:
When we use one, it’s Coco without a doubt. Lack of depth is a minor concern, as I may look toward adopting a strategy of playing two strikers if he’s not available. In an ideal world, with departures looming, what I’d like is to find someone who has decent levels of competency in both AMC and SC slots.

Strikers:
Coin-toss between Balde and Sylla. Both are very similar players, with the exception of 5” difference in height, which means deputising is easy enough in a lone-striker formation. If we do look at two up top, then I may need to find some contrast.

YOUNG, WILLING, AND... ABLE(?)

I promised myself that this year would see me start to bring youngsters through, indeed you can already see that I started to do just that towards the end of this past season – with Petit seeing some time on the right of our defensive line. Without going into massive detail, here’s the broad assessment of our youth ranks, from the perspective of our coaches.

There are clearly players there who will never make our first team, and who I’m just trying to bring up to a level where we can make a little cash from selling down the leagues. That said, there’s plenty of potential there too and I’m confident that we can start to give at least 4 or 5 names a shot at staking their claim.

15 is probably too young to start blooding him in the top flight, but I definitely need to formulate a plan for this lad. My first thoughts are around building up his speed, and work rate. He actually looks like a good prospect for out wide, in an Inside Forward type role, although that would mean a change in formation for us.

I’d welcome any immediate thoughts that anyone might have on this one, how would any of the readership look to develop and deploy this lad?

My first reaction to Nadji is his potential to operate as a Poacher, in tandem with one of our two current strikers. With some development he could also slot into the AMC position, but I’m not sure how well.

Similarly there’s Windekilde, who I mentioned picking up last summer.

Again there’s scope for him to occupy that space somewhere between an AMC and a False 9. In terms of the latter though, I think that would require a change in formation as I don’t see a False 9 operating off a flat midfield four; to me it feels more like the role that you put at the head of a 4-2-3-1 – but correct me if I’m wrong.

Moving back into midfield somewhat, two players who look potentially ready to push on are Aristide Diallo and Gianni Rotondo.

Both are shown primarily defensive midfielders, but with Potential to burn I fancy Diallo as an all-action central midfielder – possibly even a creative type.

What these both do is give me confidence to follow through with the idea of moving Grimm on. With Ferri sitting in the deeper DM role (when employed), and one or both of these as backup options, I think there’s plenty of scope.

So here’s a very hastily scribbled update on the Squad Depth situation.

Still not incredibly deep, but there are a bunch of lads in the U19 who can cover in an absolute crisis. What I’m still feeling, looking at the above, is that there are areas where I’d like to look at making some signings of reasonable repute (budget and opportunity arising).  Those are:

Central midfield: Either we play Coco as an AMC and Ferri at MC, or Coco as an MC and Ferri at DM – that means a lack of cover in the MC slot either way. Again the pairing of Diallo and Rotondo can offer cover in an emergency, but I’d really like to find an established and versatile MC, ideally one who can also be a good tutor for a lot of our youngsters.

Central defence: Realistically it’s Bauer and Amofa, with just Dembele and backup. I’m not convinced that any of our youth prospects are ready to fill in on a regular basis so I’m looking for a quality signing here.

Left midfield: I’m still not 100% convinced here, but it feels like we could use someone. I’ll keep an eye on the market and my shortlists, if I get the opportunity for a good option who can cover both flanks then I might make a move, otherwise it’ll be Scougall who gets to see more action (injuries permitting)

I also have to state, up front, that despite what we achieved in the last season this is all very much an optimistic view. Given a few million to play with, and a decent wage budget, I’d really be looking to replace around half of the first team, minimum.

On the subject of budget, there’s another couple of factors in play. First up the Board have decided to invest in Undersoil Heating – taking £2m out of the coffers. Secondly, as part of the deal to secure Luis Mata I had to include an additional £2m after 50 league appearances – that milestone will be hit after two more games so I’m assuming that I’ll need to include a set-aside contingent from the forthcoming budget.

How much have to Board given me then? Well a transfer pot of £12.5m is nothing to be sniffed at, but a wage budget of £175k/wk is likely to be a much bigger challenge; we’re currently running at £168k, and with just £30k due to drop out of that I’m effectively looking at £37k to play with. On the surface that’s not bad, in terms of covering potentially two or three new signings, but bear in mind that the annual wage rise clauses on player contracts haven't kicked in yet. I’m also expecting that I’ll see requests from agents to improve their deals for some of the key players we currently employ.

Dropping the transfer pot to a little over £10m frees up another £40k/wk for wages, but I’m not convinced just how good the games maths is around balancing those two budgets  - and particularly at predicting wage salaries – so I’ll be keeping an eye on monthly profitability once again. I recall seeing an Excel sheet that someone created, allowing you to input things like attendances and gate receipts to generate a realistic idea of wage budgets; if anyone can remind me where this was, I'd be grateful.  

TACTICALLY SPEAKING

I have no desperate desire to start messing with anything just yet, although I do have half an eye on adopting something more attack minded in the future (4-2-3-1?). I did, however, scribble down a couple of notes during the last campaign.

Firstly I suggested, some time back, applying a Player Instruction to my box-to-box midfielder encouraging him to dribble more. Whilst that may have worked in Ligue 2, with Joey Barton, I’m looking to drop that one going forward. The focus here should be on finding room to make forward runs into the opposition area, to offer an added option for though-balls and crosses. The best way to do that isn’t by dribbling at higher quality defenders.

In fact I’ll be clearing almost all of the current Player Instructions, to give me a ‘clean sheet’ on which to start (re)assessing our tactics in the new campaign.

I was also reading this post  from @RTHerringbone. No I’m not about to start adopting a strikerless formation, at least not just yet (Balde and Sylla, you might want to think on), however I do share a view with the author regarding the Hassle Opponents shout. It’s something that I adopted occasionally during the season, but I’m finding that it’s not something that does what I’m looking for. What I want is ‘simply’ the team-wide ‘More Closing Down’ instruction of old, and to achieve that without the loss of shape that’s evidenced.

I understand from someone (I forget who) that Hassle Opponents actually engages Man-to-Man marking, which would appear to be backed up by my own experiences. Like RTHerringbone, as I monitor our performances in the coming season, I’ll look to potentially make occasional player level changes but I won’t be using that shout any more.

...and finally....

As the season finished I was offered an interview for the Blackburn Rovers job, for the second time. They’d just finished 8^th in Premier League, that combination of club and stature offering almost the dream job, but there was no way I could walk away from the Strasbourg project just yet, was there?

Hopefully it won’t prevent them from considering me again in the future though.