Player Analytics FM14 Style - A Pet Project

*** UPDATE ***

Here's a link for the latest version of the FM player analytics spreadsheet, with a bunch of new data being captured and manipulated. Feel free to give it a go, and shout if you have any issues/suggestions. 

Just remember that this is a macro-enabled Excel workbook, as such you may need to store it in a Trusted Zone or manually enable macros each time you load the document. 

Cheers. 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B090aaUk7oDZcmNjRHJ5VE1EaHc/edit?usp=sharing

Expectations Exceeded, To Say The Least

Last time out you’ll recall that we’d reached the winter break in a lofty 3rd place, courtesy of one of the best scoring records in the league combined with a surprisingly effective defence – Ryan Donk making his mark in style.

Coming out of the break we’d suffered a league defeat, and then a DFB Pokal exit at the hands of FC Bayern, and I’d expressed concern that we were in danger of getting onto a bad run as we closed in on a trip to Dortmund. The slide, such as it was, was slowed by a goalless draw at home to Nürnberg but we made it four games without a win despite scoring twice against the title contenders.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, momentum – in either direction – plays a big part in FM and I was conscious that we were in danger of getting on the wrong side of the curve. Cue the visit of mid-table Köln and a game that couldn’t have gone much better...

A Brief Update on Performances, and Making Changes (or Not)

Last time out I talked about trying Henri Lansbury out in the central midfield slot, the Central Winger of sorts. Marcel Büchel was performing well, but it was noticeable that he wasn’t delivering what was probably the key part of @JLAspey’s original idea – i.e. the penetrating runs on the ball; Büchel was averaging less than one successful dribble per match.

I dropped Lansbury in for a few games to assess how he would perform, and what impact his absence might have on the flank. Our form continued through three league games – Lansbury in the centre for two of them, as well as our DFB-Pokal 3rd Round tie as a late substitute. Averaging over two dribbles per game was an improvement, although when reverting to the flank he made three. He made two or three key passes without registering an assist, and netted a couple of goals to help extend our scoring run – earning me Steam’s “Attack!” achievement in the process (‘Your team scored a goal in 20 consecutive competitive matches’).

Nosebleed Time

Last time out I covered the new additions to our squad, and then raced excitedly into the new season. After the previous campaign, the big question was whether we'd make a better start this time.

The short answer: Yes!

For the longer answer, read on...

One Season Ends, Another Begins

Last time out I posted a quick discussion of potential transfer targets, and had some great feedback (with very varied opinions) as to how you guys would approach the decisions that I was facing. So, whilst pondering which players to approach (and whether I could actually afford to offer any them deals) I played through our final four games for the season.

At the best of times it feel like the summer period flies by far too quick, but in this particular season - where I was still recovering from the disillusionment of the early campaign, that was even truer than usual. Here's how things rounded out in the 2015/16 campaign, and the flurry of activity that saw me playing pre-season friendlies, with new faces, before I knew it...

QUESTION TIME: HAVE YOUR SAY

Hi folks, when I left you last time we were just coming out of the winter break on a run of draws, edging our way closer to my survival target of 36 points from 34 matches.

Two defensive mistakes at the left fullback position saw that run end in a 1-2 defeat at home to Hoffenheim, and resulted in me tightening things up by switching that position to a FB-D Role and Duty combination. It could have just been a case of a player (Bijker, on this occasion) having a bad day, but as my plan was already to try and develop a more solid defence it seemed the way to go.

At Augsburg we went in at half-time with a 2-0 lead, which I thought we were going to throw away when they scored early in the second half, but Jimmy Marton’s first goal of the season – combined with some good defensive play – saw us finish with the two-goal cushion restored.

A narrow win at home to Frankfurt buoyed our spirits for the trip to Munich, where a brave showing saw us concede only twice in a fairly one-sided affair. With ten to play, and 30 points on the board, I revised our target to 40 – more than enough to survive in either of the previous two Bundesliga seasons during the save.

Thanks to some patient play, and more good defending, we notched three wins and three clean sheets to take us to 39 points – adding the 40th with an excellent 1-1 draw at Leverkusen. With six to play we were as good as safe...

Chipping Away At Our Target.

Having had a short break from playing the game, it occurs to me (once again) that my issues are less about adapting to handle deficiencies in my tactics, and more about identifying them in the first place. That and recognising how much of any given problem is down to tactics and how much down to the quality of my players.

Given that I hadn’t played the game for two or three weeks, having left it during the winter break - and then played through the winter friendlies at pace, I decided to jump back in by attempting to view and analyse a full match to try and pick out the main points. Realistically what I probably need to do is view a few matches, potentially with different players occupying certain positions, and look for repeating themes - seeing something happen once or twice can probably be attributed to ‘luck’ but something happening more frequently is likely to be down to the player or the tactics; the latter, in particular, if it’s evidenced with different players in the same position.

I’d initially started the first post-break game in our counter style, but having reached half-time without much in the way of attacking play I’d switched up and watched us boss the second half to offset a two-goal deficit. Because of that, preparing to face Koln I lined up the best squad I could for our 4-3-2-1 shape and dived in.

Promoted Too Soon?

** WARNING ** 

This update is a bit ‘all over the place’ – as was my head for much of the period covered herein. I can only apologise.

Based on the table for the previous two Bundesliga seasons, I set myself a points target of 36 for survival, a tally that would’ve seen us stay up by a country mile last season, although would only have been enough for a relegation playoff spot in 2013/14. So, with a 34 game season, that’s a little over a point per game on average.

That was my only goal, and after three defeats in three games I wasn’t exactly full of confidence...

...particularly as we were to play host to the Hispter’s dream-team of Borussia Dortmund next.

Preparing for the Bundesliga

Last time out I covered the back end of our promotion winning season, and closed out with some nice stats around how we’d topped the league in terms of team goals, and individual goals (Micanski). Those, along with our huge unbeaten run during the season, were causes for optimism.

It’s not all rosy though, in fact it’s quite the opposite. With Alibaz and Yabo having agreed moves to new clubs before I had the budget to tie them down, and Pietz’s contract running out, things look a little thin in midfield to say the least – particularly if I continue with the 4-2-3-1 project, dropping one of the strikers.

Here’s what I’m expecting in terms of squad depth, although that’s assuming that no-one starts to poach our other prize assets.

KSC : Season 2014/15 Finishes

Last time out I was talking about our pseudo-4231 formation, using a tweak on the Central Winger concept developed by JLAspey, and I left you with some detail around the superb performance against Aalen. 

After the Aalen game we continued our fine post-break form with three more wins (conceding just twice in the process), before a 1-1 draw at home to Sandhausen reined us in slightly.

Progress Report: The Fake 4-2-3-1

Last time out I talked about trying to work towards something akin to my old FM2012 4-2-3-1 tactic, and I began to toy with the idea of utilising a different formation that 'morphed' into the more attacking shape when we were on the offence.

So how did that work out for me? Here's my notes from that period of the season - as usual I've played way past this point, which you'll realise if you track my comments (moaning and griping) on Twitter, so whilst these were written up in the present tense, they actually represent stuff that is half a season or more in the past.

A Long-Term Tactical Vision

As the title suggests, this update is primarily about setting out a long-term tactical plan for Karlsruher SC. It is, however, also at least bit about me being a moody so-and-so – let’s get that part out of the way first, shall we?

Introducing the Three Amigos

Early season saw us off to a great start, despite suffering a run of injuries that included losing Yabo and Mast for a couple of months each. We hit the ground running with two league wins, followed by a DFB-Pokal victory over local minnows Saarbrücken which featured a brilliant performance from young Jimmy Marton (1 Goal, 2 Assists). The latter would earn us an away tie against Borussia Dortmund in the next round.

So So Close.

I’d already mentioned on Twitter that I was in two minds about promotion, on the one hand we have a handful of quality players, and a number of decent prospects, but on the other I just don’t think that we have the strength in depth to even battle for survival in the top flight. Of course I said that at Strasbourg too, where we promptly had a good run at European qualification two seasons running, but that was after I’d spent two or three years moulding my squad. 

Realistically I was looking at this season at Kalrsruhe being one of finding my feet, and preparing to build a squad for a promotion push next time around.

Diamonds Are Forever... Annoying Me (Pt 1)

I’m not sure what it is about a 4-4-2 diamond formation, but for some reason I struggle to deal with it. Whether it’s a wide diamond (DMC, ML, MR, AMC), a narrow one (DMC, MCL, MCR, AMC), or even a non-diamond narrow formation (2x DMC, 2x MC) it seems that my sides struggle to carve out chances against them compared to the more familiar flat 4-4-2 or 4-3-3 type of shapes. Defensively we don’t necessarily find it any tougher than any other match, but up front it’s another story and we’ve been frustrated on a number of occasions.

I’m not sure why that sort of shape change should impact our attacking, the most likely thing being that the addition of that pesky DMC makes all the difference, but I can’t say that I’ve noticed the same issues against a pair of DMCs in 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 variants - perhaps as those shapes then tend to leave a lot of space in the middle of the park?

Whatever the reason, with my Karlsruher SC side sitting in a very nice spot as the season closes out, and the visit of Union Berlin and their wide diamond, I decided that it’s probably time for me to have a go at seriously analysing their approach and working out what to do about it.

Early Progress With Karlsruher SC

Hi folks, after a week of sunshine, and destroying my ‘better living’ regime thanks to all-inclusive hotel tariffs, I’m back in the FM saddle. Purely fortuitously the holiday came at a good time, giving me an opportunity to reflect on my first half-season with Karlsruher SC – a run of 18 league games (plus an early German Cup exit) which has seen us win 10 matches and lost the rest; still no draws for us.

Starting Over. Karlsruhe, Baby!

(WARNING: PICTURE-HEAVY POST)

Following the loss of my RC Strasbourg save the consensus, albeit narrow, seemed to be to start a new save; thanks everyone for your input. 

So, without further ado I’m off to Germany, with a team picked on the basis of:

1. Decent facilities 
2. The fact that a mate of mine moved out to live there about a year ago.

Welcome to Karlsruhe SC

Let That Be A Lesson To You. Autosave Is Your Friend.

So my PC just did one of it's occasional 'crash & reboot' routines, something I've been trying to get to the bottom of for a while, and when it came back my FM14 save-game is corrupted. The issue is that I've not been maintaining a rolling backup, and the last accessible save I have is three games into the 2017/18 season.

I'm feeling rather deflated, as you might imagine, but also somewhat torn about how to proceed. On the one hand I would love to turn this save into a success story for Strasbourg, on the other I'm not sure how I feel about replaying the season over.

It's not that I don't have the time or the inclination, but rather that there are decisions that I'd probably want to make differently. Signings I wouldn't make, etc.

So I'm going to sleep on it, but I'd also appreciate your input here guys. The way I see it there's three options, and I'd like to know what you think...

Should I replay the last season, or start a new save?
	Replay it, but try to make all the same decisions around signings etc.
	Replay it, and pretend the first play through never happened.
	Don't do it, a fresh start is the only way.
pollcode.com free polls

So Much For Taking It Slowly.

So much for taking it slowly. I’m sure you’ve all been there, assuming that you play Football Manager and don’t just read about it; you get on a roll and you don’t want to stop, or you hit a slump and you want to play through it – then, when you do, you get on a roll and... yada yada yada.

The next thing you know you’re feeling peckish, there’s nothing in the fridge, so you decide to pop out to the local corner shop…

People In, People Out, More Tinkering - Shooting for Survival.

THE BEST LAID PLANS...

So the 2017/18 season is looming, and our chance to prove that last season's 6th place wasn't a fluke... 

Was it?

As I started to prepare for the opening of the transfer window, I got a surprise bid from Heracles for Abdoul Karim Sylla – worth around £1.4m but over a 30 month period. I’ve already noted that he’s very similar to Balde, and therefore I didn’t immediately knock back the approach. I don’t think that losing Sylla would be a huge blow, as I’m confident that we could find a suitable replacement, possibly someone who would better complement Balde’s strengths and weaknesses; I’m pretty sure, in fact, that we could do that from within our own ranks.

That being said I put the ball back in their court, suggesting that they aim higher and with more of the outlay up front if they were serious. I’d prefer to hold onto Sylla for now, but if the Dutch club are keen enough to find a decent sum then I could be tempted. Heracles backed out at that point, but of course Sylla’s agent then started making noises about a new contract. Fortunately his agent isn’t a hard-ball type, and a mutually acceptable offer was arrived at.   

I hoped that would be the end of the transfer action, we’ve not really come under a great deal of pressure for our players so far, within a matter of days things took an unwelcome turn though; if I’d not considered it before, I was faced now with the realisation that we’re going to be seen very much as a selling club until such time as we can consolidate our position in the top flight (and, realistically, the top half of it).